Trouble brewing in Jordan

Until now, King Abdullah II has successfully steered Jordan through the perils of the Arab Spring.  Jordanians are extremely frustrated with corruption, economic hardship, and the lack of political reform in their country, but they cherish stability and have been afraid of taking Jordan past the tipping point.  Each time a shock event has brought Jordan to the brink, society has taken a deep breath and stepped back.  The government has used Prime Ministers as shock absorbers, cycling through three of them in just a couple years, and doled out favors to keep the loyalty of key constituents.  This worked for a time.  However, the government's strategy is wearing thin, Jordanians have lost patience, and it appears that Jordan may not be immune to the Arab Spring after all.

According to a new survey by Marc Lynch, 58% of Middle East scholars expect that Jordan is the country most likely to experience increased mobilization in the coming year.  Several recent articles and reports warn that Jordan could soon face a serious crisis if it does not undertake meaningful reforms.  The most substantial is a March 2012 report by International Crisis Group.  The abstract concludes this way:

There is always the temptation for the regime to wait and to postpone. But the gradual disaffection of the monarchy’s core constituency coupled with efforts to unify opposition ranks by transcending debilitating divisions could portend a new chapter in the Arab uprisings’ unfolding drama. And by then, it would be too late.

Marc Lynch raises a similar warning in an article titled Jordan, Forever on the Brink.  This is his disturbing conclusion: "I would rank Jordan today only below Bahrain as at risk of a sudden escalation of political crisis -- at which point the impossible would in retrospect look inevitable indeed."

I am paying close attention to events in Jordan.  I love the country, I love its people, and I recognize how important it is to both U.S. interests and to regional stability.  It is a fragile country, held together by a delicate social compact that has always been one crisis away from disintegration.  Miraculously, Jordan has held together against tough odds, but the domestic turmoil and the regional instability are creating Jordan's toughest challenge yet.

Unfortunately, Jordan draws comparatively little attention from the media and from Middle East scholars.  It has mostly been overlooked since the Arab Spring began.  I have debated beginning a separate blog to follow events there,  but for the time being I have decided to wait; I'm hard pressed for time (this blog suffers enough), and I'm hesitant to claim any sort of expertise when I no longer live there.  However, for those interested in Jordan, I will try to share news at Building Peace.  If these posts generate any interest, or if events accelerate, perhaps I will write more.